It is still very early to assess the impact of the ban and any forecasts should account for an unknown change in consumer behaviour.

Nevertheless, there is evidence from Scotland, Ireland and the USA regarding the changes that can occur but the experience in these countries is only short term and neither are typical of the total UK market; as such they can also provide no more than general guidance.

However, an overall pattern of change in pubs and bars – an initial reduction in drink sales, followed by a slight upturn and then settling down at a level lower than pre-ban - was seen in Ireland and the US states that have introduced bans on smoking.

In making forecasts it is also important to recognise that the pub sector is dynamic and will show changes irrespective of the smoking ban. It is also important to distinguish between its impact on sales of alcohol and soft drinks that are consumed in association with food and those that are not consumed with food.

Source: Horizons